The Medina

The Restoration & Conservation of Historic Islamic Cities

Edited by Marcello Balbo

Economic, Environmental, Social and Political Trends :
Perspectives, Hypotheses and Developments

Raymond Benhaim, Ghazi Hidouci and Gustave Massiah

The Mediterranean in the Context of Globalization

Any prospective approach examining the next 20- to 30-year period must consider multiple scenarios – trend-based, worst-case or desirable. Within this time frame, variables to be taken into consideration include population distribution in the region, urbanization trends, infrastructure development, production location and geopolitical conditions. A 50-year perspective is needed to address adequately issues such as demography, the environment, innovation and research, as well as changes in social sytructures, scientific thinking, attitudes and culture. For these matters, within the bounds of a 20-year interval, rather than identifying deep-seated shifts or assessing the implications of potential redirections, one can only pinpoint potentially emerging trends and the extent to which these are in line with longer-term tendencies. Any prospective approach also requires projections. However, one cannot assume linearity. On the contrary, emphasis is placed on discontinuities – those crises and breaches which, far from being mere accidents, may lead to significantly different future scenarios.
The method proposed here consists in identifying those evolving contradictions which could plausibly shape the future of the area and analysing them within the historical context of the Mediterranean. Glances at the past will help shed light on the contradictions currently at work in the area. As latent and manifest contradictions unfold, junctions and forks in the road will appear, allowing for the analysis of potential scenarios. The present text thus does not intend to offer forecasts or predictions. Rather, elaboration, interpretation and deepened understanding aim to highlight possible alternatives for the future.